Live track record · no backtests

Scored against the first print

Every nowcast below was published on this site before the official estimate came out. Each one is the last daily nowcast before the scheduled release date, compared with the statistics office's first estimate. Misses stay on the record.

Quarters scored1
Mean abs. error0.3pp
Within ±1pp / ±2pp100% / 100%
Beat no-change1 of 1

On the record before the print

First estimates due in the next three weeks, with today's nowcast. Each is scored here as soon as the official figure reaches our data sources.

ReleaseEconomyQuarterNowcast70% range
26 Oct 2026South KoreaQ3 2026+4.9+2.8 to +6.9
29 Oct 2026United StatesQ3 2026+2.4+1.5 to +3.3
30 Oct 2026AustriaQ3 2026+0.3-1.3 to +2.0
30 Oct 2026BelgiumQ3 2026+0.8-0.3 to +1.9
30 Oct 2026FinlandQ3 2026+1.3-1.3 to +3.8
30 Oct 2026FranceQ3 2026+0.9-0.1 to +1.9
30 Oct 2026GermanyQ3 2026+1.0-0.4 to +2.4
30 Oct 2026IrelandQ3 2026+3.7-10.1 to +17.6
30 Oct 2026ItalyQ3 2026-0.3-1.6 to +0.9
30 Oct 2026MalaysiaQ3 2026+3.1+0.9 to +5.4
30 Oct 2026MexicoQ3 2026+2.0+0.1 to +3.8
30 Oct 2026PortugalQ3 2026+2.1+0.4 to +3.9
30 Oct 2026SpainQ3 2026+3.4+2.0 to +4.8
30 Oct 2026SwedenQ3 2026+2.0-0.6 to +4.5
31 Oct 2026Hong KongQ3 2026+3.0+0.7 to +5.3
6 Nov 2026IndonesiaQ3 2026+5.1+4.7 to +5.5
9 Nov 2026PhilippinesQ3 2026+5.8+2.9 to +8.7
9 Nov 2026Saudi ArabiaQ3 2026+4.2-2.4 to +10.8
12 Nov 2026United KingdomQ3 2026+3.0+1.9 to +4.2
14 Nov 2026BulgariaQ3 2026+1.1-1.0 to +3.1
14 Nov 2026ColombiaQ3 2026+4.5+2.1 to +6.9
14 Nov 2026DenmarkQ3 2026+2.1-0.7 to +5.0
14 Nov 2026NetherlandsQ3 2026+4.3+2.8 to +5.7
14 Nov 2026NorwayQ3 2026+1.1-1.9 to +4.1
14 Nov 2026PolandQ3 2026+2.8+0.2 to +5.3
14 Nov 2026RomaniaQ3 2026+6.7+0.6 to +12.8
14 Nov 2026RussiaQ3 2026+2.0-1.0 to +5.1

Scored quarters

EconomyQuarterReleasedFinal nowcastFirst estimateErrorNo-change errorDirection
ChinaQ3 202619 Oct 2026+4.5+4.9+0.3+1.2✓

Real GDP growth, % annualised (SAAR). Error = first estimate − final nowcast, in percentage points. No-change error = the error of simply repeating the previous quarter's official growth. Direction ✓ = the nowcast called the speed-up or slowdown from the previous quarter correctly (moves under 0.25pp are not scored). Daily records began on 10 Oct 2026; quarters released earlier are covered by the simulated tests on the methodology page. Data: live_record.json.