World / East Asia & Pacific / South Korea
Last change–
70% range–
First estimate–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (Bank of Korea).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
South Korea Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 1.35 | 0.05 |
| 2026-10-22 | Copper price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 0.98 | 1.06 | 0.01 |
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| 2026-10-15 | Retail trade volume (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | -1.86 | 0.25 | -0.09 |
| 2026-10-15 | Industrial production (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | 1.92 | -0.82 | 0.04 |
| 2026-10-10 | Merchandise exports (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | 2.29 | -2.15 | 0.71 |
| 2026-09-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Aug 2026 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | Retail trade volume (OECD) | OECD | Jul 2026 | -2.68 | -0.61 | -0.06 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.