Last change–
70% range–
First estimate–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (ONS).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
United Kingdom Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| 2026-10-12 | Monthly GDP | ONS | Aug 2026 | 0.10 | 0.21 | -0.04 |
| 2026-09-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Aug 2026 | 0.02 | 0.07 | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | Monthly GDP | ONS | Jul 2026 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| 2026-09-03 | Equity market | World Bank GEM | Aug 2026 | 1.97 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| 2026-08-29 | Industrial production | World Bank GEM | Jun 2026 | -0.20 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| 2026-08-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Jul 2026 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| 2026-08-17 | Brent oil price | IMF | Jul 2026 | -0.90 | 0.49 | -0.03 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.