Last change–
70% range–
NSI flash–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (NSI).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
Bulgaria Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Construction output | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | 0.69 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| 2026-10-15 | Euro area industrial production | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | -0.51 | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| 2026-10-10 | Capital goods production | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | -7.89 | 5.02 | -0.43 |
| 2026-10-10 | Industrial production | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | 0.81 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| 2026-10-05 | Retail sales volume | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | 0.31 | 0.53 | -0.07 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unemployment rate | Eurostat | Aug 2026 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2026-09-28 | Euro area economic sentiment | European Commission | Sep 2026 | 97.90 | 97.84 | 0.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | Services confidence | European Commission | Sep 2026 | 9.10 | 8.06 | 0.01 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Economic sentiment indicator | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-10-29 | Industry confidence | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-10-29 | Services confidence | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-10-29 | Retail confidence | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-10-29 | Construction confidence | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-10-29 | Euro area economic sentiment | European Commission | Oct 2026 | Euro area |
| 2026-10-30 | Unemployment rate | Eurostat | Sep 2026 | Labour |
| 2026-11-04 | Retail sales volume | Eurostat | Sep 2026 | Consumption |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.