World / North America / Mexico
Last change–
70% range–
First estimate–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (INEGI).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
Mexico Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 0.78 | 0.26 |
| 2026-10-22 | Copper price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 0.98 | -0.10 | 0.40 |
| 2026-10-20 | Proprietary indicator | worldgdp.org | Sep 2026 | 0.02 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| 2026-10-05 | Proprietary indicator | worldgdp.org | Sep 2026 | 1.22 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| 2026-09-20 | Proprietary indicator | worldgdp.org | Aug 2026 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.02 |
| 2026-09-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Aug 2026 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| 2026-09-14 | Retail trade volume (OECD) | OECD | Jul 2026 | -0.12 | 0.21 | -0.02 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.