World / Europe & Central Asia / Russia
Last change–
70% range–
First estimate–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (Rosstat).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
Russia Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 0.66 | -0.29 |
| 2026-10-22 | Copper price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 0.98 | -0.25 | -0.07 |
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2026-10-15 | Imports (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | -3.29 | -1.22 | -0.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | Exports (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | -3.38 | -2.13 | -0.15 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial production | World Bank GEM | Jul 2026 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| 2026-09-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Aug 2026 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.02 |
| 2026-09-14 | Imports (OECD) | OECD | Jul 2026 | 0.38 | -1.51 | 0.80 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Industrial production | World Bank GEM | Aug 2026 | Industry |
| 2026-11-03 | Copper price | IMF | Oct 2026 | Global |
| 2026-11-03 | Brent oil price | IMF | Oct 2026 | Global |
| 2026-11-14 | Exports (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Trade |
| 2026-11-14 | Imports (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Trade |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.