World / Sub-Saharan Africa / South Africa
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (Stats SA).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Since last week
Weekly Economic Pulse
South Africa Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Mining production volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Aug 2026 | -5.51 | -1.43 | -0.43 |
| 2026-10-30 | Manufacturing production volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Aug 2026 | -3.19 | 0.20 | -0.21 |
| 2026-10-30 | Wholesale trade sales volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Aug 2026 | 1.34 | -0.90 | 0.54 |
| 2026-10-20 | Composite leading indicator (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2026-10-15 | Retail trade volume (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | -0.31 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2026-10-15 | Industrial production (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | 23.86 | -6.14 | 0.18 |
| 2026-10-15 | Imports (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | -1.68 | 5.56 | 0.01 |
| 2026-10-15 | Exports (OECD) | OECD | Aug 2026 | 3.22 | 1.24 | 0.23 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Industrial production (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Industry |
| 2026-11-14 | Retail trade volume (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Consumption |
| 2026-11-14 | Exports (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Trade |
| 2026-11-14 | Imports (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | Trade |
| 2026-11-20 | Composite leading indicator (OECD) | OECD | Oct 2026 | Surveys |
| 2026-11-29 | Manufacturing production volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Sep 2026 | Industry |
| 2026-11-29 | Mining production volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Sep 2026 | Industry |
| 2026-11-29 | Wholesale trade sales volume (Stats SA) | sarb | Sep 2026 | Consumption |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
How the nowcast homed in, last 8 quarters
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.