4.3%

Q3 2026 real GDP growth, SAAR · as of 4 Nov 2026

Last change–

70% range–

First estimate–

Quarter on quarter–

Evolution of the nowcast

Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (NESDC).

Subcomponent contributions

What moved the nowcast

Latest data releases

Date	Release	Source	Period	Actual	Model expected	Impact
2026-10-30	Private consumption index	bot	Sep 2026	-2.23	0.07	-0.52
2026-10-22	Brent oil price	IMF	Sep 2026	14.70	1.32	-0.09
2026-10-22	Copper price	IMF	Sep 2026	0.98	0.97	0.33
2026-10-16	US industrial production	Federal Reserve	Sep 2026	0.66	0.03	0.06
2026-09-30	Private consumption index	bot	Aug 2026	0.28	-0.08	0.17
2026-09-18	US industrial production	Federal Reserve	Aug 2026	0.02	0.01	-0.00
2026-09-14	China industrial production	World Bank GEM	Jul 2026	-0.28	0.75	0.06
2026-09-03	Equity market	World Bank GEM	Aug 2026	-0.57	0.32	-0.06

Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.

Upcoming data

Expected	Release	Source	Period	Group
2026-11-16	US industrial production	Federal Reserve	Oct 2026	Global

Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.

Track record: nowcast vs official

How the nowcast homed in, last 8 quarters

Model versions

Version	Date	Change	Error (RMSE)	Within ±1pp / ±2pp	Grade

Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.

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