Last change–
70% range–
Modelled share–
Modelled economies only–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Economies weighted by GDP in current US dollars (World Bank, latest year). Updated daily.
Contributions by economy
Percentage points of growth. The unmodelled remainder is held at its latest annual growth (World Bank) and shown separately; it shrinks as more economies are modelled. World Bank definition.
Economies
| Economy | Weight | Nowcast | 70% range | Contribution | Accuracy | Official estimate |
|---|
Weight is the economy's share of this aggregate's GDP. Accuracy shows each model's grade and how often its final nowcast landed within ±1pp / ±2pp of official GDP in past quarters (see methodology).
What moved the nowcast
Change in each economy's contribution to Sub-Saharan Africa growth at each update, percentage points. Line: total change.
Map
Current-quarter nowcast by economy, % SAAR. Grey: not modelled.
Latest data releases
| Date | Economy | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Expected | Impact on economy | Impact here |
|---|
Impact here is the economy-level impact scaled by the economy's weight in this aggregate.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Economy | Release | Source | Period |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
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Track record: nowcast vs official
Final nowcast before each official release vs official GDP, modelled economies combined, % SAAR. Last bar: current quarter.
Model versions
Aggregation method and every version of the constituent economy models, most recent first. A new version goes live only if its backtest error falls.
| Date | Model | Version | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Error and hit rates are each economy's backtest results for that version: how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp / ±2pp of official GDP (2020–2021 excluded). See the methodology.