World / East Asia & Pacific / Japan
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (Cabinet Office).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Since last week
Weekly Economic Pulse
Japan Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 2.61 | -0.10 |
| 2026-10-22 | Copper price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 0.98 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| 2026-10-20 | Composite leading indicator (OECD) | OECD | Sep 2026 | 0.03 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| 2026-10-15 | Machinery orders from general/production machinery makers (SA) | estat | Aug 2026 | 9983.08 | 2743.22 | 0.32 |
| 2026-10-15 | 10y JGB yield | FRED | Sep 2026 | 0.11 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2026-10-14 | Economy Watchers survey: services, current conditions DI (SA) | watcher | Sep 2026 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| 2026-10-10 | Household consumption expenditure (Family Income and Expenditure Survey) | estat | Aug 2026 | 2568.81 | -1147.61 | 0.22 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Household consumption expenditure (Family Income and Expenditure Survey) | estat | Sep 2026 | Consumption |
| 2026-11-14 | Machinery orders from general/production machinery makers (SA) | estat | Sep 2026 | Investment |
| 2026-11-14 | Economy Watchers survey: services, current conditions DI (SA) | watcher | Oct 2026 | Services |
| 2026-11-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Oct 2026 | Global |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
How the nowcast homed in, last 8 quarters
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.