World / Latin America & Caribbean / Brazil
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (IBGE).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Since last week
Weekly Economic Pulse
Brazil Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 1.03 | 0.13 |
| 2026-10-22 | Copper price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.01 |
| 2026-10-17 | IBC-Br activity index | bcb | Aug 2026 | 0.34 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| 2026-10-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Sep 2026 | 0.66 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| 2026-10-15 | Services volume (IBGE) | sidra | Aug 2026 | -0.07 | -0.34 | 0.13 |
| 2026-10-12 | Retail sales volume (IBGE) | sidra | Aug 2026 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | Industrial production (IBGE) | sidra | Aug 2026 | -0.59 | -0.48 | -0.07 |
| 2026-09-18 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Aug 2026 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | Retail sales volume (IBGE) | sidra | Sep 2026 | Consumption |
| 2026-11-14 | Services volume (IBGE) | sidra | Sep 2026 | Services |
| 2026-11-16 | US industrial production | Federal Reserve | Oct 2026 | Global |
| 2026-11-16 | IBC-Br activity index | bcb | Sep 2026 | Activity |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
How the nowcast homed in, last 8 quarters
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.