4.4%

Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (ELSTAT).

Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.

Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.

Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.