World / Middle East & North Africa / United Arab Emirates
Last change–
70% range–
First estimate–
Quarter on quarter–
Year on year–
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the first official estimate (FCSC).
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Weekly Economic Pulse
United Arab Emirates Weekly Economic Pulse: full history, weekly table and method →
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Brent oil price | IMF | Sep 2026 | 14.70 | 0.19 | -0.13 |
| 2026-08-17 | Brent oil price | IMF | Jul 2026 | -0.90 | -6.98 | -0.12 |
| 2026-07-13 | Brent oil price | IMF | Jun 2026 | -20.63 | 1.43 | 0.41 |
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | Brent oil price | IMF | Oct 2026 | Global |
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Within ±1pp / ±2pp | Grade |
|---|
Hit rates show how often the final nowcast landed within ±1pp and ±2pp of official GDP in the backtest (2020–2021 excluded). The grade, from A+ to C, combines them with error size versus a naive forecast and how often the nowcast called the direction of growth correctly; see the methodology.